mercredi 3 juillet 2013

The two key macroeconomic indicators of the day


unemployment USAAujourd'hui place the publication of two key U.S. macroeconomic indicators: ADP national report (non-farm employment rate) at 14:15, and the ISM non-manufacturing index at 16:00.
The ADP National report measures the monthly change in the sector non-farm private employment, this ratio is determined with data on income 40,000 U.S. companies. This indicator is a good signal to anticipate the government's report on non-farm payrolls will be released on Friday, it is highly anticipated by investors. The indicator is expected by the consensus 160K 135K against the previous month, the variation of this indicator can be very volatile.
The ISM non-manufacturing index measures the relative level of business conditions, including those in production, employment, the number of new orders, inventories and prices. The survey is conducted from a survey involving 400 purchase of the non-manufacturing sector managers. If the spring index above 50 indicates expansion in the industry, and vice versa if it appears below indicates contraction of the industry. The index is expected by the consensus 54 against 53.7 the previous month.
The EUR / USD pair is perfect for this kind of power trader indicator, it reacts instantly to the release of ADP and ISM non-manufacturing index. From a technical point of view the pair moving inside a bearish channel after breaking down this morning to support his former ranks in which the pair evolved since June 26. The pair is currently oblique resistance to its bearish channel.
If any of these indicators appears above expectations, then the pair will drop its course suddenly, she will likely reach the bottom of its bearish channel to build on its oblique support.
If they stand in expectations, the pair is likely to evolve within a range between 1.2924 and 1.2982.
If one indicator appears below expectations, the EUR / USD could experience upward momentum, and that would break the resistance of a downward sloping channel to join former support of its range.
It is advisable to be cautious when posting, and do not rush to expect volatility decline before taking a position, especially in the current context or volatility reigns supreme. There are often strong movements from 50 to 100 pips in a few minutes on the important news, sometimes in the wrong direction, thus turning violently.

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