The Court of Auditors has again pinned the government keeping its deficit reduction targets , both for 2013 and even 2014.Jean- Marc Ayrault has now announced that 14 billion euros will be punctured in expenses related to the Finance Act 2014.Unemployment is at its highest, the recession is declared, will again tackle the deficit would it not dangerous now ?
Growth forecasts downward
The government expects 2014 growth of 1.2%, however, this prediction seems mindless with respect to the current trend.
The Court of Auditors more about predicting the OECD is based, ie an increase of 0.7%.
Originally scheduled to 2.9%, the deficit in 2014 would then amount to 3.5%.
France has committed against its European partners to reduce its public deficit to 3% of GDP, the government has until 2015 to achieve and sustain this effort.
However, besides that Spain will achieve a deficit of 6.5% of GDP in 2013, there is a two-speed Europe.
The Court of Auditors is blind
Despite corrections in growth forecasts, the Court of Auditors gives a fairly encouraging the policy of the Government portrait and stresses that the executive following the right path.
Indeed, so far the government has mainly relied on higher taxes for the year 2013 it will be an effort of 2 percentage points of GDP to be asked, and in 2014 it will be 1 point.
By cons, in 2014 the government will not feel nearly as spending about 80% of the effort will be focused on reducing public spending.

The Court of Auditors requests the Government to carry on spending "braking with immediate effect."
The measures proposed by the Court of Auditors are dangerous, including the freezing of the index of civil servants (already decided by the government), in the indexing of pensions or family allowances.
Are also covered housing assistance, or unemployment benefits.
François Hollande himself mentioned that the number of officials was not an adjustment variable, so it will be private sector employees, and the unemployed who will be most affected.
These are measures that discriminate depletion recovery of consumption and therefore growth.
You should know what the goal is, deficit reduction, or resumption of growth?

Of the 150 pages that make up the report provided by the Court of Auditors, we note the presence of only one page (115 for the curious) evoking the multipliers.
And moreover, this is a comparison between the spending multiplier and revenue.
Estimates of these multipliers are less than 0.5, which are certainly poor estimates.
To understand what is a multiplier, take an example, the expenditure.
If I lower the costs of the order of 1 percent of GDP, and GDP decreased by 1 point, this means that my multiplier is 1.
By cons, if again, I reduced spending a point, and GDP decreased by two points, it means that my multiplier is 2.
In our case, with a multiplier less than 0.5, it means that if spending is reduced by a certain amount, the impact on GDP will be at least two times lower.

The estimated multiplier in an open economy like ours is very difficult economy, yet it is above the government or the Court of Auditors base their estimates of growth or deficit.
But in periods of deflation marked by a recession or stagnation, is empirically known that the multipliers are very strong.
And that is the tragedy, because the Court of Auditors underestimates, therefore promotes austerity measures.
The government operates these measures are expected to low pressure growth since the multipliers are estimated to be low, and in the end it is the recession, and we wonder why it is always wrong.
An IMF report says himself that Keynesian multipliers are strong in Western countries today.
And even, we could benefit from these high multipliers to boost growth while there is still time.

In conclusion, the policy advocated by the Court of Accounts is probably based on erroneous estimates.
And especially since even erroneous, the Court of Auditors does not even seem that worry multipliers why we systematically observe negative differences between the estimates and achievements deficits.