Forex 01/ 07: Weekly Fundamental Analysis

The British and U.S. economic calendar not give us a lot of events to work on this week.
In the UK , the MPC will be the heart of the schedule and the American side it is mainly related to unemployment figures that interest to currency traders .
Moreover , apart from these two economies we will also study some publications even if the attention will focus mainly on these two areas which we have just referred .
United Kingdom
The PMI figures pave the pending decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) published later in the week.


PMI construction published tomorrow is expected to reach 51.3 for the month of June, an increase of the index compared to 50.8 met a month earlier.

We can note that the figures published in the last two months have surpassed double recovery analysts' expectations, it is possible that the trend continues with a slightly higher figure again, which show a continued expansion of the sustainable
sector.

The next day the number of the largest PMI, Services PMI will be released.
This is one of the leading figures of the week given the importance of services that account for a large share of the growth in the UK.

Markets expect a slight decline in sales of 54.9 to 54.6, however when we look once again at the history of this news we can see that during the last two quarters, five times the figures actually published
were better than expected figures, a further increase in this number this month would not surprising and this scenario is quite possible.


Thursday at lunch time, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England (BoE) will meet to decide whether the interest rate and capital purchases are subject to change or remain the same.

Actually there is little expectation on the part of market change for over two monetary measures.
We still keep an eye on these statistics and in particular the interest rate which is characterized as a unique kind of news (blue badge) and can thus lead to excessive volatility in the markets in case of changes in numbers
.



United States
On the American side the economic calendar is a bit busier with one of the notable events of the week will be the traditional figure of the NFP, as we have understood the employment and unemployment will therefore here the key areas to consider.


Meanwhile, on Wednesday afternoon the number of non-manufacturing ISM is expected to grow.

Forecasts indicate a shift in sales from 53.7 to 54.3 which would represent the third consecutive monthly increase this figure, however this news has failed to forecast very recently so it may be that analysts do wrong,
anyway market participants seek here a shift in the important clue in one direction or the other may greatly impact the course.


The preliminary figure of ADP NFP will be released Thursday, an increase of 135k to 161k is planned.

This statistic is often seen as the main guiding the real news NFP figures published on Friday, we will observe this data just as informative and avoid taking it into account in our trading because we are increasingly hesitant about its
efficiency, both news seem less and less correlate them in recent months, the NFP should be treated singularly.


We come to this famous figure of the NFP, the rate of non-agricultural jobs, economic announcement characterized as exceptional.

Firstly we are not supposed to ignore this news always generates excess volatility in the markets shortly before the publication of figures but also after.

Much of stakeholders is not willing to be exposed to the market given the large graphic movements that may be encountered on the course at this point that can scare, however, we invite you to see our video of fundamental trading in which
a demonstration of trading on the same news NFP is carried out with a profit of $ 78 to the key, you will discover how to take advantage of this ad as part of the most important economic events for a trader.

Here forecasts show us a figure that should rise from 175k to 162k, we will study the numbers of unemployment claims published the day before in order to make a judgment and see how behaves employment in the United States (discussed
timely information on the blog).

Euro-Zone

Within the European Union the coming days will be much quieter than other major economies, the calendar will focus on the PMI figures will be released Wednesday morning followed by the monthly interest rate decision of the
European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday morning.

The figures of Italian and Spanish PMI services are expected to improve, but overall should be lower than the nominal level 50 which is a certain limit to growth because it means they are not growing but declined despite the
improvement of statistical data.


On Thursday, the ECB will release its interest rate, no surprises are expected, the figure should be maintained at 0.5%.
In recent weeks there has been much speculation as to new monetary measures but nothing has been officially published by the ECB, on the other hand we can count on the press conference Mario Draghi will take place three quarters of an hour later
in which he should say more about the economic measures which will most likely react markets.


Asia and Oceania
This week it is Australia that interest us particularly, the announcement of the interest rate Tuesday is one of the key events of the week.

After falling and be set at 2.75% in May, the last month the rate has been maintained at this level, however, the governor Glenn Stevens of the RBA (Australian bank) said that a further reduction in the rate devalue a
just over AUD and maintaining the rate remains the most likely but we still watching this amazing news that has the potential to shake the market scenario.


Other news will be observed in Australia such as the number of retail sales will be released in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday and is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.4%, the number of approvals
building on Thursday should also vary and this time very strongly from 9.1% to 0.9%, overnight traders may try to use these data in an attempt to garner a few pips
overnight.