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Mario Draghi, BoE: all the news this Thursday on forex

Today's session was hectic on the forex market, despite a holiday in America (Independence Day) and thus lower trade volumes. The foreign exchange market reacted strongly this afternoon lectures at the ECB and the Bank of England.

The European currency was weighed down by about ECB President Mario Draghi after the announcement of keeping rates at 0.5%. Mario Draghi said at the conference that "rates would remain at their current level or lower for an extended period", "50 basis points, it is not a lower limit", this is the first time that the ECB shown such accuracy. Such a monetary policy makes the euro less attractive since it has a tendency to dilute the value.

The EUR / USD has lost 0.80% within 30 minutes after the declaration of the ECB. It currently operates in support of its downtrend to 1.1912 (charts 30 minutes).

The book has also been weighed down by the speech of the Bank of England surprised investors, the United Kingdom does not soon see a tightening of monetary policy despite recent signs of improvement in the British economy. In a statement, the BOE said that the future course of monetary policy does not take account of recent economic developments in the country. Policy rates were kept at 0.5% as the ECB.

The GBP / USD has lost 1.27% after the declaration of the Bank of England. It currently operates in support of its downtrend to 1.5072 (charts 30 minutes).

There is also a strong ascent of the Swiss franc appreciates mechanically with the decline of the euro.

The markets are still worried about the political crisis in Portugal, tensions in the euro zone have been revived in recent days. Lisbon had two resignations from the beginning of the week in his government, including the Minister of Finance raising fears of a possible collapse of the ruling coalition. However, during the speech of the ECB Mario Draghi said he was reassured by the new Minister of Finance Maria Luis Albuquerque.

Now, investors have turned to the U.S. monthly report on employment and unemployment, which will be published tomorrow. It should be noted that the decrease in liquidity injections by the Fed depends on improving U.S. economy

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What's new on the foreign exchange market on Wednesday?

  dollar inflationLes good numbers of ADP boost the U.S. dollar
The company Human Resources Management ADP announced the creation of 180,000 private sector jobs outside agriculture after seasonal adjustment for the month, while experts stared 160,000. Uptrend likely to continue to 101.22 or 101.07 if support around 100.29 hold. Then a pullback in the 100.29-100.07 area. Eyes now focus on the numbers of U.S. payrolls Friday for clues about when the Fed will begin reducing its USD 85 billion monthly asset purchases.
The pound advantage of the increase in service sector
The greenback was also lower against the pound, with GBP / USD GBP cross taking 0.76% to hit 1.5268, setting a peak the day after it was pointed out that the British service sector activity had known June its biggest increase since March 2011. An encouraging result that indicates expansion of the sector and the UK economic recovery.
Risk aversion has the yen
The yen surged against its Western counterparts today as investors got rid of riskier assets due to political tensions in Portugal. Indeed, the resignation of two ministers following disagreements over the budget has revived fears about the debt crisis in the euro area.
In the European Union, the PMI in the service sector appears down in June
PMI announced a decline increased pressure on the single currency. In addition, caution still update the approach of ECB meeting tomorrow, its president Mario Draghi who are likely to remember that the end of unconventional policies is not there tomorrow.
However, late in the day, the euro regained ground after the release of retail sales increased by 1% in May, surpassing the 0.2% approached. The EUR / USD has gained a bearish potential for a fall to 1.2971-1.2936 as the 1.3007-1.3029 resistance area. After this fall, we expect a recovery up to 1.3029 or 1.3050.
The Aussie unscrews following statements Glenn Stevens
The AUD / USD has fallen 0.73% to hit 0.9080, after hitting a low of three years. The fall in the Aussie began at dawn, after the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia has admitted that its governing board had "deliberated for a long time" yesterday before opting to maintain its key rate to 2.75% , its lowest historical value, which may foreshadow a future lowering.
Caution tomorrow, the markets will be closed tomorrow across the Atlantic for the national holiday of Independence Day and we could see a surge in volatility in the currency markets.

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The two key macroeconomic indicators of the day

unemployment USAAujourd'hui place the publication of two key U.S. macroeconomic indicators: ADP national report (non-farm employment rate) at 14:15, and the ISM non-manufacturing index at 16:00.
The ADP National report measures the monthly change in the sector non-farm private employment, this ratio is determined with data on income 40,000 U.S. companies. This indicator is a good signal to anticipate the government's report on non-farm payrolls will be released on Friday, it is highly anticipated by investors. The indicator is expected by the consensus 160K 135K against the previous month, the variation of this indicator can be very volatile.
The ISM non-manufacturing index measures the relative level of business conditions, including those in production, employment, the number of new orders, inventories and prices. The survey is conducted from a survey involving 400 purchase of the non-manufacturing sector managers. If the spring index above 50 indicates expansion in the industry, and vice versa if it appears below indicates contraction of the industry. The index is expected by the consensus 54 against 53.7 the previous month.
The EUR / USD pair is perfect for this kind of power trader indicator, it reacts instantly to the release of ADP and ISM non-manufacturing index. From a technical point of view the pair moving inside a bearish channel after breaking down this morning to support his former ranks in which the pair evolved since June 26. The pair is currently oblique resistance to its bearish channel.
If any of these indicators appears above expectations, then the pair will drop its course suddenly, she will likely reach the bottom of its bearish channel to build on its oblique support.
If they stand in expectations, the pair is likely to evolve within a range between 1.2924 and 1.2982.
If one indicator appears below expectations, the EUR / USD could experience upward momentum, and that would break the resistance of a downward sloping channel to join former support of its range.
It is advisable to be cautious when posting, and do not rush to expect volatility decline before taking a position, especially in the current context or volatility reigns supreme. There are often strong movements from 50 to 100 pips in a few minutes on the important news, sometimes in the wrong direction, thus turning violently.

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The economic news in the currency market July 1, 2013

 

Eurozone 2In the beginning of the month, the major new economic publications are moving on clues "Purchasing Managers Index" (PMI) in the manufacturing sector, they allow us to make an assessment of the health of industrial activity.
For the euro area, the results are quite positive but rather different in different countries. Germany, Europe's largest economy had a negative with a new index to 48.6 against 49.4 in June. Following the decline in orders, forecasts of output growth remain very pessimistic.
The French index remains in contraction phase with 48.4, however, this result hides some positive elements with new orders and a weakening outlook declines in production.
Side of Spain, the index is positive with an official announcement to 50 with a rather stable activity and therefore positive outlook for orders and employment.
In Italy, we still have a contraction in manufacturing activity with an index to 49.1. However, this is positive news after a contraction to 45.5 in April.
With these indicators and improving economic data, the euro rose against the dollar around $ 1.30.
The Chinese index is positive with 50.1, but remains down which raises the concern of economists expect a slowdown in economic activity. This index has a strong impact on / USD continued to trade links that connect AUD, the results have therefore put pressure on the pair which has caused lower Australian dollar.
Regarding Japan, the release of the Tankan index is positive and is at its highest level in two years. The weakening of the yen helped export support thanks to attractive prices thus improving the confidence of manufacturers. This publication has allowed the currency to strengthen.
In the euro area, we also had publications on the unemployment rate and the CPI. The unemployment rate is still increasing with 12.1%, the rate has increased in many countries in the region including Greece. Regarding the CPI is consistent with the forecast, these statements have therefore had little impact on currencies.

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The economic news in the currency market of July 2, 2013

dollar australien_forex.frLes daily news for forex mainly concern the Australian central bank announced its monetary policy decision. As required by the foreign exchange market, the status quo was maintained with a rate of 2.75%, the lowest historical, but necessary to enable growth through exports restart rates.

After this announcement, the Australian dollar fell further against 0.9224 with 0.9201 just before the speech Governor Glenn Stevens. Since April, the decline already amounts to 10% and should be sustained because of the likelihood of further rate cuts in Australia, helped by inflation in the central bank target of 3%.

On the European side, the Spanish Ministry of Employment today announces good news: unemployment fell by 2.6% or 127,200 unemployed less than last month. However, this can be explained by the increase in seasonal jobs. Regarding the budget balance remains always negative with a slight improvement.

Finally, the unemployment rate in the euro area in May was revised up to 12.2% due to an error in the data for France. Indeed, the French unemployment rate was revised up 0.5 percentage points, an increase in the Euroland of 0.1 points.

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Forex 01/07 : Analysis weekly chart

EUR / USD

The currency pair euro / dollar recovered somewhat situation ranks rather than the trend of the last two days last week.

Day Friday formed a kind of shooting star, after she was bullish bearish end of the session as evidenced by the shape of the Japanese candlestick of the session, the course and based near 1.3000.

Currently this is a difficult market to work, it is best to focus on other markets at the moment and refrain from active trader this by projecting the long term, however we can
remain bullish over the short term when we are above 1.30.

GBP / USD
On this second currency pair we were clearly bearish last Friday, the course pursued by our key price level of 1.52500 and finally corrected some few to form a hammer.
This market could well find significant support on this threshold and a situation of range or a bounce upwards are possible.

In the case of ranks it is best to head units short time to draw support and resistance and to take advantage of rebounds both rising and falling on them.

At the moment we are not interested to buy this market, if we ever manage to break down the hammer of the day on Friday we will remain in a downward manner and hence will favor sellers signals to reach 1.5000, which will be the
optimal goal.
EUR / JPY

On this Japanese pair we closed far enough from the resistive level 130.

If we ever manage to break this threshold then the market may continue higher and we would aim for 132.
However it appears that the market does not seem willing to do that as we watch the number of days during which we stayed below, we could very well continue to store near this area for some time, but what will
Either way keep an eye on it, one of the solutions that we offer is the ability to place purchase orders above 130 that will run once this threshold is crossed, until we can
trader units bullish intraday time small movements up to 130 will be our first goal before considering 132.

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Forex 01/ 07: Weekly Fundamental Analysis

The British and U.S. economic calendar not give us a lot of events to work on this week.
In the UK , the MPC will be the heart of the schedule and the American side it is mainly related to unemployment figures that interest to currency traders .
Moreover , apart from these two economies we will also study some publications even if the attention will focus mainly on these two areas which we have just referred .
United Kingdom
The PMI figures pave the pending decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) published later in the week.


PMI construction published tomorrow is expected to reach 51.3 for the month of June, an increase of the index compared to 50.8 met a month earlier.

We can note that the figures published in the last two months have surpassed double recovery analysts' expectations, it is possible that the trend continues with a slightly higher figure again, which show a continued expansion of the sustainable
sector.

The next day the number of the largest PMI, Services PMI will be released.
This is one of the leading figures of the week given the importance of services that account for a large share of the growth in the UK.

Markets expect a slight decline in sales of 54.9 to 54.6, however when we look once again at the history of this news we can see that during the last two quarters, five times the figures actually published
were better than expected figures, a further increase in this number this month would not surprising and this scenario is quite possible.


Thursday at lunch time, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England (BoE) will meet to decide whether the interest rate and capital purchases are subject to change or remain the same.

Actually there is little expectation on the part of market change for over two monetary measures.
We still keep an eye on these statistics and in particular the interest rate which is characterized as a unique kind of news (blue badge) and can thus lead to excessive volatility in the markets in case of changes in numbers
.



United States
On the American side the economic calendar is a bit busier with one of the notable events of the week will be the traditional figure of the NFP, as we have understood the employment and unemployment will therefore here the key areas to consider.


Meanwhile, on Wednesday afternoon the number of non-manufacturing ISM is expected to grow.

Forecasts indicate a shift in sales from 53.7 to 54.3 which would represent the third consecutive monthly increase this figure, however this news has failed to forecast very recently so it may be that analysts do wrong,
anyway market participants seek here a shift in the important clue in one direction or the other may greatly impact the course.


The preliminary figure of ADP NFP will be released Thursday, an increase of 135k to 161k is planned.

This statistic is often seen as the main guiding the real news NFP figures published on Friday, we will observe this data just as informative and avoid taking it into account in our trading because we are increasingly hesitant about its
efficiency, both news seem less and less correlate them in recent months, the NFP should be treated singularly.


We come to this famous figure of the NFP, the rate of non-agricultural jobs, economic announcement characterized as exceptional.

Firstly we are not supposed to ignore this news always generates excess volatility in the markets shortly before the publication of figures but also after.

Much of stakeholders is not willing to be exposed to the market given the large graphic movements that may be encountered on the course at this point that can scare, however, we invite you to see our video of fundamental trading in which
a demonstration of trading on the same news NFP is carried out with a profit of $ 78 to the key, you will discover how to take advantage of this ad as part of the most important economic events for a trader.

Here forecasts show us a figure that should rise from 175k to 162k, we will study the numbers of unemployment claims published the day before in order to make a judgment and see how behaves employment in the United States (discussed
timely information on the blog).

Euro-Zone

Within the European Union the coming days will be much quieter than other major economies, the calendar will focus on the PMI figures will be released Wednesday morning followed by the monthly interest rate decision of the
European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday morning.

The figures of Italian and Spanish PMI services are expected to improve, but overall should be lower than the nominal level 50 which is a certain limit to growth because it means they are not growing but declined despite the
improvement of statistical data.


On Thursday, the ECB will release its interest rate, no surprises are expected, the figure should be maintained at 0.5%.
In recent weeks there has been much speculation as to new monetary measures but nothing has been officially published by the ECB, on the other hand we can count on the press conference Mario Draghi will take place three quarters of an hour later
in which he should say more about the economic measures which will most likely react markets.


Asia and Oceania
This week it is Australia that interest us particularly, the announcement of the interest rate Tuesday is one of the key events of the week.

After falling and be set at 2.75% in May, the last month the rate has been maintained at this level, however, the governor Glenn Stevens of the RBA (Australian bank) said that a further reduction in the rate devalue a
just over AUD and maintaining the rate remains the most likely but we still watching this amazing news that has the potential to shake the market scenario.


Other news will be observed in Australia such as the number of retail sales will be released in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday and is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.4%, the number of approvals
building on Thursday should also vary and this time very strongly from 9.1% to 0.9%, overnight traders may try to use these data in an attempt to garner a few pips
overnight.

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