The price of gold had depreciated sharply a few weeks ago , then a lull ,
and now falling back with a vengeance .Compared to the highest in September,
this is a decrease of 28 % in total.Now it depends on whether this decline may
continue, or whether it represents a cyclical adjustment .
The first are the physical gold buyers and arranging for commercial and
non-financial.
Including jewelry, but especially now in the computer and
high technology, since gold is an excellent conductor.
Although the jewelery
industry and luxury, often exploiting gold are doing quite well, it is primarily
the Asian industrial demand has a future in the weighing of the actors.
Alternatively, there are those who hold gold in financial or speculative
purposes.
There are including central banks, when selling their gold stocks
tend to seriously impact the course.
But these are one-off events, and a
priori they do not explain the sharp drop, including the sale of Cyprus gold is
negligible.
In addition, another cause is found to be disinflation, gold is
traditionally a tool of conservation value and therefore a safe haven against
inflation.
However, in recent months, prices tend to increase more slowly,
this is called deflation, this is also the case in France.
So at this point,
it is clear that a number of investors are not interested in gold, and thus in
favor of selling profitable assets.
On the other hand, investors seem to
anticipate a decline in inflation in the United States, indeed the policy of the
Federal Reserve QE3 coming to an end, it allows for time artificially maintain a
level of inflation,
judgment should therefore promote the sale of gold for
the reason mentioned above.
Moreover, a Bloomberg survey indicates that many
traders never have been bearish on gold for 3 years now.
Asian demand for media
As we mentioned just before, a significant share of the market held by physical
gold consumers.
While others place more often on gold "paper" from financial
product tracing the price of gold (ETF ...).
The price of gold has remained
high for several years, a decline is unexpected for Chinese producers have seen
their margins shrink as prices increased.
But now, the price decreases
strongly, manufacturers are therefore waiting for a continuation of the decline
to buy heavily at the lower levels, and store, while enjoying a great margin.
However, production is dependent on the demand from Western countries, even
if the demand for new technology is strong, maintaining the European stagnation
would not be profitable in gold.
But anyway, gold has good fundamentals on
the physical plane.
The runoff of gold by central banks.
European central banks have not yet really is at this level, if not France
having sold 500 tons of gold a few years ago (one sixth of the Reserve Bank of
France anyway).
However, the euro area has full the largest gold reserve in
the world, more than 10 000 tonnes.
And Italy has nearly 2,500 tons of gold,
about as much as France, she could to ease the burden of its debt to withdraw a
portion of its gold as the price of gold n '
not too down.
It is
therefore necessary to carefully monitor the movements of European national
banks could liquidate some of their reserves ...
In conclusion, for the
time being, it appears that the downward trend continues.
Indeed, inflation
risks appear to be seriously diminished, and even through clearly expansionary
monetary measures, prices have thought very moderately.
Now, it is more
towards disinflation and deflation may be in the absence of stimulus.
But do
not forget that gold is a refuge, a relic as Keynes described so well, if e
deflationary crisis, it could be as much as the course is highly appreciated if
not better.