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Mario Draghi, BoE: all the news this Thursday on forex

Today's session was hectic on the forex market, despite a holiday in America (Independence Day) and thus lower trade volumes. The foreign exchange market reacted strongly this afternoon lectures at the ECB and the Bank of England.

The European currency was weighed down by about ECB President Mario Draghi after the announcement of keeping rates at 0.5%. Mario Draghi said at the conference that "rates would remain at their current level or lower for an extended period", "50 basis points, it is not a lower limit", this is the first time that the ECB shown such accuracy. Such a monetary policy makes the euro less attractive since it has a tendency to dilute the value.

The EUR / USD has lost 0.80% within 30 minutes after the declaration of the ECB. It currently operates in support of its downtrend to 1.1912 (charts 30 minutes).

The book has also been weighed down by the speech of the Bank of England surprised investors, the United Kingdom does not soon see a tightening of monetary policy despite recent signs of improvement in the British economy. In a statement, the BOE said that the future course of monetary policy does not take account of recent economic developments in the country. Policy rates were kept at 0.5% as the ECB.

The GBP / USD has lost 1.27% after the declaration of the Bank of England. It currently operates in support of its downtrend to 1.5072 (charts 30 minutes).

There is also a strong ascent of the Swiss franc appreciates mechanically with the decline of the euro.

The markets are still worried about the political crisis in Portugal, tensions in the euro zone have been revived in recent days. Lisbon had two resignations from the beginning of the week in his government, including the Minister of Finance raising fears of a possible collapse of the ruling coalition. However, during the speech of the ECB Mario Draghi said he was reassured by the new Minister of Finance Maria Luis Albuquerque.

Now, investors have turned to the U.S. monthly report on employment and unemployment, which will be published tomorrow. It should be noted that the decrease in liquidity injections by the Fed depends on improving U.S. economy

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What's new on the foreign exchange market on Wednesday?

  dollar inflationLes good numbers of ADP boost the U.S. dollar
The company Human Resources Management ADP announced the creation of 180,000 private sector jobs outside agriculture after seasonal adjustment for the month, while experts stared 160,000. Uptrend likely to continue to 101.22 or 101.07 if support around 100.29 hold. Then a pullback in the 100.29-100.07 area. Eyes now focus on the numbers of U.S. payrolls Friday for clues about when the Fed will begin reducing its USD 85 billion monthly asset purchases.
The pound advantage of the increase in service sector
The greenback was also lower against the pound, with GBP / USD GBP cross taking 0.76% to hit 1.5268, setting a peak the day after it was pointed out that the British service sector activity had known June its biggest increase since March 2011. An encouraging result that indicates expansion of the sector and the UK economic recovery.
Risk aversion has the yen
The yen surged against its Western counterparts today as investors got rid of riskier assets due to political tensions in Portugal. Indeed, the resignation of two ministers following disagreements over the budget has revived fears about the debt crisis in the euro area.
In the European Union, the PMI in the service sector appears down in June
PMI announced a decline increased pressure on the single currency. In addition, caution still update the approach of ECB meeting tomorrow, its president Mario Draghi who are likely to remember that the end of unconventional policies is not there tomorrow.
However, late in the day, the euro regained ground after the release of retail sales increased by 1% in May, surpassing the 0.2% approached. The EUR / USD has gained a bearish potential for a fall to 1.2971-1.2936 as the 1.3007-1.3029 resistance area. After this fall, we expect a recovery up to 1.3029 or 1.3050.
The Aussie unscrews following statements Glenn Stevens
The AUD / USD has fallen 0.73% to hit 0.9080, after hitting a low of three years. The fall in the Aussie began at dawn, after the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia has admitted that its governing board had "deliberated for a long time" yesterday before opting to maintain its key rate to 2.75% , its lowest historical value, which may foreshadow a future lowering.
Caution tomorrow, the markets will be closed tomorrow across the Atlantic for the national holiday of Independence Day and we could see a surge in volatility in the currency markets.

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The two key macroeconomic indicators of the day

unemployment USAAujourd'hui place the publication of two key U.S. macroeconomic indicators: ADP national report (non-farm employment rate) at 14:15, and the ISM non-manufacturing index at 16:00.
The ADP National report measures the monthly change in the sector non-farm private employment, this ratio is determined with data on income 40,000 U.S. companies. This indicator is a good signal to anticipate the government's report on non-farm payrolls will be released on Friday, it is highly anticipated by investors. The indicator is expected by the consensus 160K 135K against the previous month, the variation of this indicator can be very volatile.
The ISM non-manufacturing index measures the relative level of business conditions, including those in production, employment, the number of new orders, inventories and prices. The survey is conducted from a survey involving 400 purchase of the non-manufacturing sector managers. If the spring index above 50 indicates expansion in the industry, and vice versa if it appears below indicates contraction of the industry. The index is expected by the consensus 54 against 53.7 the previous month.
The EUR / USD pair is perfect for this kind of power trader indicator, it reacts instantly to the release of ADP and ISM non-manufacturing index. From a technical point of view the pair moving inside a bearish channel after breaking down this morning to support his former ranks in which the pair evolved since June 26. The pair is currently oblique resistance to its bearish channel.
If any of these indicators appears above expectations, then the pair will drop its course suddenly, she will likely reach the bottom of its bearish channel to build on its oblique support.
If they stand in expectations, the pair is likely to evolve within a range between 1.2924 and 1.2982.
If one indicator appears below expectations, the EUR / USD could experience upward momentum, and that would break the resistance of a downward sloping channel to join former support of its range.
It is advisable to be cautious when posting, and do not rush to expect volatility decline before taking a position, especially in the current context or volatility reigns supreme. There are often strong movements from 50 to 100 pips in a few minutes on the important news, sometimes in the wrong direction, thus turning violently.

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The economic news in the currency market July 1, 2013

 

Eurozone 2In the beginning of the month, the major new economic publications are moving on clues "Purchasing Managers Index" (PMI) in the manufacturing sector, they allow us to make an assessment of the health of industrial activity.
For the euro area, the results are quite positive but rather different in different countries. Germany, Europe's largest economy had a negative with a new index to 48.6 against 49.4 in June. Following the decline in orders, forecasts of output growth remain very pessimistic.
The French index remains in contraction phase with 48.4, however, this result hides some positive elements with new orders and a weakening outlook declines in production.
Side of Spain, the index is positive with an official announcement to 50 with a rather stable activity and therefore positive outlook for orders and employment.
In Italy, we still have a contraction in manufacturing activity with an index to 49.1. However, this is positive news after a contraction to 45.5 in April.
With these indicators and improving economic data, the euro rose against the dollar around $ 1.30.
The Chinese index is positive with 50.1, but remains down which raises the concern of economists expect a slowdown in economic activity. This index has a strong impact on / USD continued to trade links that connect AUD, the results have therefore put pressure on the pair which has caused lower Australian dollar.
Regarding Japan, the release of the Tankan index is positive and is at its highest level in two years. The weakening of the yen helped export support thanks to attractive prices thus improving the confidence of manufacturers. This publication has allowed the currency to strengthen.
In the euro area, we also had publications on the unemployment rate and the CPI. The unemployment rate is still increasing with 12.1%, the rate has increased in many countries in the region including Greece. Regarding the CPI is consistent with the forecast, these statements have therefore had little impact on currencies.

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The economic news in the currency market of July 2, 2013

dollar australien_forex.frLes daily news for forex mainly concern the Australian central bank announced its monetary policy decision. As required by the foreign exchange market, the status quo was maintained with a rate of 2.75%, the lowest historical, but necessary to enable growth through exports restart rates.

After this announcement, the Australian dollar fell further against 0.9224 with 0.9201 just before the speech Governor Glenn Stevens. Since April, the decline already amounts to 10% and should be sustained because of the likelihood of further rate cuts in Australia, helped by inflation in the central bank target of 3%.

On the European side, the Spanish Ministry of Employment today announces good news: unemployment fell by 2.6% or 127,200 unemployed less than last month. However, this can be explained by the increase in seasonal jobs. Regarding the budget balance remains always negative with a slight improvement.

Finally, the unemployment rate in the euro area in May was revised up to 12.2% due to an error in the data for France. Indeed, the French unemployment rate was revised up 0.5 percentage points, an increase in the Euroland of 0.1 points.

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